Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2916 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2916 · PHL → JAX

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:57 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2916 · PHL → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?