AA 2952 · MCO → PHL

took off 8:02 PM ET · expected to land 10:07 PM ET (scheduled 7:22 PM ET → 10:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2952 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?