Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2974 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2974 · DFW → MCO

departs 5:18 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

MCO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2974 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?