AA 3141 · ORD → SFO

departs 5:22 PM CT · arrives 8:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3141 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?