AA 3163 · ORD → LGA

took off 12:52 PM CT · expected to land 3:28 PM ET (scheduled 12:50 PM CT → 4:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3163 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?