Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3245 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3245 · TPA → DFW

departs 1:57 PM ET · arrives 3:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3245 · TPA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?