Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3251 · DFW → RNO

departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

RNO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3251 · DFW → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?