Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3258 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3258 · SFO → DFW

departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 6:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3258 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?