Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3317 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3317 · ORD → JAX

departs 1:46 PM CT · arrives 5:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at JAX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3317 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?