Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 468 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 468 · MSY → DFW

departs 5:50 AM CT · arrives 7:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.07 in

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 468 · MSY → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?