AA 528 · MFE → DFW

departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.1 in of rain forecast at MFE that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.07 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 528 · MFE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?