Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 53 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 53 · SAT → PHX

departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 8:22 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 53 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time