AA 739 · MDT → ORD

took off 6:06 AM ET · expected to land 6:39 AM CT (scheduled 5:58 AM ET → 7:05 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MDT are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 739 · MDT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?