Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 801 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:59 AM ET, ETA 11:23 AM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 801 · PHL → AUS

took off 8:59 AM ET · expected to land 11:23 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 801 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time