AA 811 · DEN → PHL

took off 10:50 AM MT · expected to land 3:54 PM ET (scheduled 10:39 AM MT → 4:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 811 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?