AA 9781 · LAX → DFW

departs 1:13 PM PT · arrives 6:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9781 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?