AS 1035 · OGG → HNL

departs 8:15 AM HT · arrives 8:54 AM HT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 8am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1035 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?