Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1044 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 1044 · LIH → HNL

departs 9:46 AM HT · arrives 10:24 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 9am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1044 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?