Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1123 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 1123 · HNL → LIH

departs 5:03 PM HT · arrives 5:44 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HNL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1123 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?