AS 1184 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:47 PM HT · arrives 9:41 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 8pm departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1184 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?