AS 1330 · SFO → SAN

departs 4:43 PM PT · arrives 6:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1330 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?