Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1389 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 1389 · PDX → LAX

departs 9:27 PM PT · arrives 11:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1389 · PDX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?