AS 1403 · PDX → SFO

departs 10:47 AM PT · arrives 12:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1403 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?