Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 1412 · HNL → SAN

departs 9:55 PM HT · arrives 6:32 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1412 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?