tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1493 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AS 1493 · SAN → ORD

departs 5:23 PM PT · arrives 11:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 5.9d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

  1. On time or early
    70%
  2. 15–30 min late
    14%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.