AS 1517 · LAS → ANC

departs 5:10 PM PT · arrives 9:24 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1517 · LAS → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?