Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Today

AS 200 · SEA → KOA

departs 6:59 PM PT · arrives 10:10 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 200 · SEA → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?