Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 233 · LAX → EWR

departs 8:35 AM PT · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 233 · LAX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?