AS 268 · SEA → HNL

departs 8:51 PM PT · arrives 11:51 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 268 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?