AS 304 · JNU → SEA

departs 7:12 AM AKDT · arrives 10:38 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from JNU are usually not late

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.49 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 304 · JNU → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?