Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 326 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 326 · TPA → SEA

departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 326 · TPA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?