AS 395 · SEA → EWR

departs 10:41 PM PT · arrives 6:40 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 395 · SEA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?