Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Today

AS 411 · SEA → SFO

departs 9:42 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 411 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?