AS 433 · PDX → SMF

took off 3:00 PM PT · landed 4:15 PM PT (scheduled 2:48 PM PT → 4:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 433 · PDX → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?