Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 465 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 465 · SAN → SEA

departs 1:59 PM PT · arrives 4:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 465 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?