AS 468 · SEA → SBA

departs 3:30 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 468 · SEA → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?