Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 493 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Today

AS 493 · DEN → SEA

departs 9:08 PM MT · arrives 11:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 493 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?