Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 518 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 518 · PDX → SNA

departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Sundays in October are usually busier than average

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 518 · PDX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?