Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 520 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 520 · SEA → SAT

departs 10:58 PM PT · arrives 5:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 520 · SEA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?