AS 530 · BUR → SEA

departs 8:27 PM PT · arrives 11:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BUR are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 530 · BUR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?