AS 554 · STS → LAS

departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 3:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STS

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 554 · STS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?