AS 574 · PDX → SNA

departs 5:32 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 574 · PDX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?