AS 578 · EWR → SAN

departs 4:35 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 578 · EWR → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?