AS 586 · FAI → ANC

departs 9:44 AM AKT · arrives 10:59 AM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↓ 9am departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 586 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?