AS 615 · DEN → SEA

took off 6:20 PM MT · expected to land 7:31 PM PT (scheduled 5:57 PM MT → 7:48 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 615 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?