Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 64 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 64 · WRG → KTN

departs 3:57 PM AKDT · arrives 4:33 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at KTN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KTN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,267 ft, 2.2 in of rain forecast at KTN that day

↑ 1.7 in of rain forecast at WRG that day

↑ Other factors

↓ KTN usually runs smoothly

↓ 3pm departures from WRG are usually not late

Weather at each end

WRG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

KTN (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,267 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 64 · WRG → KTN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KTN?