Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 678 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 678 · PDX → SJC

departs 9:30 PM PT · arrives 11:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 678 · PDX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?