AS 683 · SAN → SEA

departs 6:27 PM PT · arrives 9:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 683 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?