AS 728 · SEA → LAS

took off 2:05 PM PT · landed 4:09 PM PT (scheduled 1:39 PM PT → 4:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 728 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?