AS 764 · SEA → SMF

departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
46%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 764 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?